9/56 YEAR CYCLE: CHILEAN EARTHQUAKES

Appendix 3 CHILEAN EARTHQUAKES & THE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE

Moon Sun Finance

Appendix for the paper 9/56 year Cycles: Earthquakes & Volcanoes.

Please note: The recent 8.8 magnitude quake of February 27, 2010 occurred within the 9/56 year grids as shown in Tables 1 & 2.

Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile gave a comprehensive listing of Chilean earthquakes of mag =>7.0 since 1570 (see Appendix A). Of the total 95 earthquakes presented for the 1800 - 2009 era, 42 appeared in the 12 months beginning March 1 of those years in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table 1 (significant p < .01).

Table 1 CHILEAN QUAKES & THE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: 1800 - 2009 mag =>7.0
			Sq 52	Sq 05			Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
															1808	1817
								1801	1810	1819 *	1828	1837 *	1846	1855	1864	1873
		1803	1812	1821	1830	1839	1848	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893	1902	1911 *	1920 *	1929 *
1841	1850 *	1859 *	1868 *	1877 **	1886	1895	1904	1913 *	1922 **	1931 *	1940 *	1949 *****	1958	1967 *	1976 *	1985 **
1897	1906 *	1915	1924	1933	1942 *	1951	1960 *****	1969	1978	1987 **	1996	2005 *
1953 ***	1962 *	1971 **	1980	1989	1998	2007 *
2009 *
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major Chilean quakes in the 12 months commencing March 1 of those years in the table. Source of Raw Data: Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile

Remarkably since 1910, some 18 large Chilean earthquakes occurred in the 6 sequences in the ensuing 9/56 year grid (Sqs 32, 41, 50, 03 12 & 21) (significant p < .001). Curiously, most events happened in the 3.1 months beginning March 18 (9) and 3.0 months beginning November 1 (7). There were two anomalies on October 11, 1940 and August 8, 1987.

The dates in the tables have been expressed as YYYYMMDD.

Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21
	1913 19140129	1922 1107 1110	1931 0318	1940 1011	1949 0425 0529 1217 1217 19500129
1960 0521 0522 0522 0619 1101	1969	1978	1987 0305 0808	1996	2005 0506
Each sequence separate by 9 years. Major earthquakes in the 11 months commencing March 1.

Chile experienced 25 earthquakes of mag =>7.8 since 1800 (see Appendix B), of which 13 appeared in the 11 months beginning April 1 of those years in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table 2 (significant p < .01). Events in this pattern showed strong seasonality (see subsequently).

Table 2 CHILEAN QUAKES & THE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: 1800 - 2009 mag => 7.8
			Sq 52	Sq 05			Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21
								1801	1810	1819 0411	1828	1837 1107
		1803	1812	1821	1830	1839	1848	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893
1841	1850	1859	1868 0813	1877 0509 18780123	1886	1895	1904	1913 19140129	1922 1110	1931	1940	1949 1217 1217
1897	1906 0816	1915	1924	1933	1942	1951	1960 0522	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005 0506
1953	1962	1971	1980	1989	1998	2007
2009 20100228	2018
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major Chilean quakes in the 11 months commencing April 1 of those years in the table. Source of Raw Data: Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile

Californian quakes (mag =>7.0) were most apparent in Sequences 34, 43, 52 and 05 (David McMinn), which also show up in Table 1. Thus, major Chilean and Californian quakes occurred preferentially in a similar sector of the complete 9/56 year grid. Additionally, Servicio Seismologico Universidad de Chile gave the historic record 9.5 mag Chilean earthquake as occurring on August 13, 1868 (Sq 52). Thus it took place in the same 56 year sequences (Sqs 34, 43 & 52), as did many record seismic events in south western North America (David McMinn). (NB: Other sources gave the May 22, 1960 quake (Sq 32) as being of magnitude 9.5, which appeared in Table 1. This would be of equal first rank of the 1868 event. )

From the 9/56 year cycle, Chilean earthquakes were least likely to occur between Sequences 24 & 16 as shown in Appendix C. In fact, the 25 sequences comprised 45% of the complete 9/56 year grid, yet contained only 17% of all major Chilean quakes (mag 7.8) (significant p < .01).

One would expect Chilean earthquakes to have similarities to events in Argentina given their close geographic proximity. However, this was not observed as the two countries experience earthquakes in different sectors of the complete 9/56 year cycle. For Chile, major seismic activity occurs mainly within the 36 year sub-cycles Series 1 & 2 and Argentina near the 36 year sub-cycles Series 3 & 4. (NB: The 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 and 36 ysc Series 3 & 4 as presented by McMinn, 2004.)

Seasonality

Seasonality shows up in the 9/56 year grids for major Chilean quakes (mag => 7.8). In the following grid, two quakes happened in mid August and two in the 1.2 months ended February 28 of the following year. The anomaly was the May 9, 1877 event.

			Sq 52	Sq 05
		1803	1812	1821
1841	1850	1859	1868 0813	1877 0509 18780123
1897	1906 0816	1915	1924	1933
1953	1962	1971	1980	1989
2009 20100228	2018

Furthermore, three Chilean events happened in the month to May 10 and five quakes in the 1.5 months to December 20 as follows. The anomaly was the January 29, 1914 event.

	Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21
		1801	1810	1819 0411	1828	1837 1107
1839	1848	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893
1895	1904	1913 19140129	1922 1110	1931	1940	1949 1217 1217
1951	1960 0522	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005 0506
2007 1114

In Sequences 46 & 55, two events happened in early December, with an anomaly in May.

Sq 46	Sq 55
1806	1815
1862	1871
1918 0520 1204	1927 1201
1974	1983

Within the 9/56 year grid in Table 2, Chilean quakes (mag =>7.8) can show very close seasonal timing.

Interval of =< 6 days	Interval of > 7 Days < 1.4 months
May 09, 1877 May 06, 2005	April 11, 1819 May 22, 1960

August 13, 1868 August 16, 1906

November 07, 1837 November 10, 1922	December 17, 1949 December 17, 1949

January 23, 1878 January 29, 1914	February 28, 2009

A seasonal effect in the timing of Chilean seismic activity needs to be more fully explored before a firm answer can be provided on its validity. Seasonality was also strongly featured in major Californian earthquakes (mag => 7.0) since 1800 (David McMinn).

References

McMinn, David. Market Timing by The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing. 2004.
McMinn. David. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. www.davidmcminn.com/pages/calquakes.pdf
Servicio Seismologico Universidad de Chile. Sismos Importantes Y/O Destructivos 1570 - Mayo 2005. http://ssn.dgf.uchile.d/home/terrem.htm.

Appendix A CHILEAN EARTHQUAKES (mag =>7.0): 1570 - 2005
Date	Time	Latitude	Longitude	Mag
08-02-1570	9:00	########	########	8.3
17-03-1575	10:00	-33,400	-70,600	7.3
16-12-1575	14:30	-39,800	-73,200	8.5
24-11-1604	12:30	########	########	8.5
16-09-1615	23:30	-18,500	-70,350	8.8
13-05-1647	22:30	########	########	8.5
15-03-1657	19:30	-36,830	-73,030	8.0
10-03-1681	-	-18,500	-70,350	7.3
12-07-1687	2:00	########	########	7.3
08-07-1730	4:45	-33,050	-71,630	8.7
24-12-1737	-	-39,800	-73,200	7.7
25-05-1751	1:00	-36,830	-73,030	8.5
30-03-1796	6:45	-27,350	-70,350	7.7
11-04-1819	10:00	-27,350	-70,350	8.3
19-11-1822	22:30	-33,050	-71,630	8.5
26-09-1829	14:00	-33,050	-71,630	7.0
08-10-1831	6:00	########	########	7.8
18-09-1833	5:45	########	########	7.7
20-02-1835	11:30	-36,830	-73,030	8.5
07-11-1837	8:00	-39,800	-73,200	8.0
08-10-1847	11:30	-31,610	-71,180	7.3
17-12-1849	6:00	-29,950	-71,370	7.5
06-12-1850	6:52	-33,810	-70,220	7.3
02-04-1851	6:48	-33,320	-71,420	7.1
05-10-1859	8:00	-27,350	-70,350	7.6
13-08-1868	16:45	-18,500	-70,350	9.5
24-08-1869	13:30	-19,600	-70,230	7.5
05-10-1871	5:00	-20,200	-70,170	7.3
09-05-1877	21:16	-19,600	-70,230	8.5
23-01-1878	8:00	-20.000	-70.300	7.9
02-02-1879	6:30	-53,000	-70,670	7.3
15-08-1880	8:48	-31,620	-71,180	7.7
16-08-1906	19:48	-33,000	-72,000	7.9
08-06-1909	1:00	-26,500	-70,500	7.6
04-10-1910	19:00	-22,000	-69,000	7.3
15-09-1911	8:10	-20,000	-72,000	7.3
29/01/1914	23:30	-35,000	-73,000	8.2
14/02/1917	20:48	-30,000	-73,000	7.0
20/05/1918	12:57	-28,500	-71,500	7.9
4/12/1918	7:47	########	########	8.2
1/03/1919	23:37	-41,000	-73,500	7.2
2/03/1919	7:45	-41,000	-73,500	7.3
10/12/1920	0:25	-39,000	-73,000	7.4
7/11/1922	19:00	-28,000	-72,000	7.0
10/11/1922	23:53	-28,500	-70,000	8.4
4/05/1923	17:47	-28,750	-71,750	7.0
15/05/1925	7:18	-26,000	-71,500	7.1
28/04/1926	7:13	-24,000	-69,000	7.0
21/11/1927	19:17	-44,500	-73,000	7.1
20/11/1927	16:35	-22,500	-70,500	7.1
1/12/1927	0:06	-35.000	-72.000	8.3
19/10/1929	16:18	-23,000	-69,000	7.5
18/03/1931	4:02	-32,500	-72,000	7.1
23/02/1933	4:09	-20,000	-71,000	7.6
1/03/1936	17:45	-40,000	-72,500	7.1
13/07/1936	7:12	-24,500	-70,000	7.3
25/01/1939	23:32	########	########	8.3
18/04/1939	2:22	-27,000	-70,500	7.4
11/10/40	14:41	-41,500	-74,500	7.0
8/07/1942	1:55	-24,000	-70,000	7.0
14/03/1943	14:37	-20,000	-69,500	7.2
6/04/1943	12:07	-30,750	-72,000	8.3
1/12/1943	6:34	-21,000	-69,000	7.0
13/07/1945	7:17	-33,250	-70,500	7.1
2/08/1946	15:19	########	########	7.9
19/04/1946	23:29	-38,000	-73,500	7.3
25/04/1949	9:54	-19,750	-69,000	7.3
29/05/1949	21:32	-22,000	-69,000	7.0
17/12/1949	2:53	-54,000	-71,000	7.8
17/12/1949	11:07	-54,000	-71,000	7.8
29/01/1950	20:56	-53,500	-71,500	7.0
9/12/1950	17:38	########	########	8.3
6/051953	13:16	########	########	7.6
6/12/1953	22:05	-22,100	-68,700	7.4
8/02/1954	-	-29.000	-70.500	7.7
19/04/1955	16:24	-30,000	-72,000	7.1
8/01/1956	16:54	-19,000	-70,000	7.1
17/12/1956	22:31	-25,500	-68,500	7.0
29/07/1957	13:15	-23,500	-71,500	7.0
13/061959	20:12	-20,420	-69,000	7.5
21/05/1960	6:02	-37,500	-73,500	7.3
22/05/1960	6:32	-37,500	-73,000	7.3
22/05/1960	15:11	-39,500	-74,500	8.5
19/06/1960	22:01	-38,000	-73,500	7.3
1/11/1960	4:45	-38,500	-75,100	7.4
13/07/1961	17:19	-41,700	-75,200	7.0
14/02/1962	2:36	-37,800	-72,500	7.3
3/08/1962	4:56	-23,300	-68,100	7.1
23/02/1965	18:11	-25,670	-70,630	7.0
28/03/1965	12:33	-32,418	-71,100	7.4
28/12/1966	4:18	-25,510	-70,740	7.8
13/03/1967	12:06	-40,120	-74,680	7.3
17/06/1971	17:00	-25,402	-69,058	7.0
8/07/1971	23:03	-32,511	-71,207	7.5
18/08/1974	6:44	-38453	-73431	7.1
10/05/1975	10:27	-38183	-73232	7.7
29/11/1976	21:40	-20520	-68919	7.3
3/08/1979	14:11	-26,518	-70,664	7.0
16/10/1981	0:25	-33134	-73074	7.5
4/10/1983	14:52	-26535	-70563	7.3
3/03/1985	19:46	-33,240	-71,850	7.8
8/04/1985	21:56	-34131	-71618	7.5
5/03/1987	6:17	-24388	-70161	7.3
8/08/1987	11:48	########	########	7.1
30/07/1995	1:11	-23,360	-70,310	7.3
06/05/2005	18.44	29.895	69.125	7.8
14/11/2007	12.40	-22.314	-70.078	7.5
27/02/2010				8.8
Events highlighted in bold fall in 12 months beginning MArch 1 of those years in Table 1. Source: Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile

Appendix B CHILEAN EARTHQUAKES (mag =>7.8): 1570 - 2005
Date	Time	Latitude	Longitude	Mag
11/04/1819	10:00	-27,350	-70,350	8.3
19/11/1822	22:30	-33,050	-71,630	8.5
08/10/1831	6:00	########	########	7.8
20/02/1835	11:30	-36,830	-73,030	8.5
07/11/1837	8:00	-39,800	-73,200	8.0
13/08/1868	16:45	-18,500	-70,350	9.5
09/05/1877	21:16	-19,600	-70,230	8.5
23/01/1878	8:00	-20.000	-70.300	7.9
16/08/1906	19:48	-33,000	-72,000	7.9
29/01/1914	23:30	-35,000	-73,000	8.2
20/05/1918	12:57	-28,500	-71,500	7.9
4/12/1918	7:47	########	########	8.2
10/11/1922	23:53	-28,500	-70,000	8.4
1/12/1927	0:06	-35.000	-72.000	8.3
25/01/1939	23:32	########	########	8.3
6/04/1943	12:07	-30,750	-72,000	8.3
2/08/1946	15:19	########	########	7.9
17/12/1949	2:53	-54,000	-71,000	7.8
17/12/1949	11:07	-54,000	-71,000	7.8
9/12/1950	17:38	########	########	8.3
22/05/1960	15:11	-39,500	-74,500	8.5
28/12/1966	4:18	-25,510	-70,740	7.8
3/03/1985	19:46	-33,240	-71,850	7.8
06/05/2005	18.44	29.895	69.125	7.8
27/02/2010				8.8
Events highlighted in bold fall in 12 months beginning January 15 of those years in Table 2. Source: Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile

Appendix C MAJOR CHILEAN QUAKES (mag => 7.8) BETWEEN SEQUENCES 24 & 16 From the complete 9/56 year grid
Sq 24	Sq 33	Sq 42	Sq 51	Sq 04	Sq 13	Sq 22	Sq 31	Sq 40	Sq 49	Sq 02	Sq 11	Sq 20	Sq 29
								1800	1809	1818	1827	1836	1845
		1802	1811	1820	1829	1838	1847	1856	1865	1874	1883	1892	1901
1840	1849	1858	1867	1876	1885	1894	1903	1912	1921	1930	1939	1948	1957
1896	1905	1914	1923	1932	1941	1950 1209	1959	1968	1977	1986	1995	2004	2013
1952	1961	1970	1979	1988	1997	2006	2015
2008	2017
Sq 38	Sq 47	Sq 56	Sq 09	Sq 18	Sq 27	Sq 36	Sq 45	Sq 54	Sq 07	Sq 16
							1805	1814	1823	1832
	1807	1816	1825	1834 18350220	1843	1852	1861	1870	1879	1888
1854	1863	1872	1881	1890	1899	1908	1917	1926	1935	1944
1910	1919	1928	1937	1946 0802	1955	1964	1973	1982	1991	2000
1966 1228	1975	1984	1993	2002	2011
The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years. Table based on the year beginning March 1.

Appendix C MAJOR CHILEAN QUAKES (mag => 7.8) BETWEEN SEQUENCES 24 & 16 From the complete 9/56 year grid

Appendix C MAJOR CHILEAN QUAKES (mag => 7.8)
BETWEEN SEQUENCES 24 & 16
From the complete 9/56 year grid